Die Bedeutung von Gelegenheitsstrukturen in der 'General Theory of Crime' von Michael R. Gottfredson und Travis Hirschi

'Die vorliegende Studie befaßt sich mit der Frage nach dem theoretischen und empirischen Stellenwert von Gelegenheitsstrukturen innerhalb der 'General Theory of Crime'. Dazu werden die in der Literatur vorliegenden Explikationen und Operationalisierungen dargestellt und kritisiert sowie ein neuer Vorschlag zur Messung der Gelegenheitsvariable vorgelegt. Ausgangspunkt der Analysen ist die Dimensionalität der Variable Selbstkontrolle, da diese Frage innerhalb der scientific community kontrovers diskutiert wird und beantwortet werden muß, bevor eine empirische Prüfung der Theorie erfolgen kann. Die Fragestellung wird anhand einer Zufallsstichprobe von 508 Personen aus Niedersachsen exemplarisch für die Verhaltensweise Fahren unter Alkoholeinfluß geprüft. Die empirische Analyse erfolgt mit linearen Strukturgleichungsmodellen. Es zeigt sich, daß es sich bei der Variable Selbstkontrolle um ein mehrdimensionales Konstrukt handelt und daß entgegen den theoretischen Erwartungen die Wirkung der Variable Selbstkontrolle bei geringer 'crime opportunity' stärker ist.' (Autorenreferat)'In this paper three questions are addressed. First, is the General Theory of Crime (GTOC) by Gottfredson and Hirschi (1990) able to explain driving while intoxicated (DWI)? Second, is the variable self-control a unidimensional or a multidimensional construct? Third, what is the meaning of the variable crime opportunity and how can we measure this variable? Therefore it is discussed how researchers have explicated and how they operationalized this variable. After a brief critical discussion of these approaches a new measurement instrument is introduced. To test the theoretical deduced hypotheses a causal modeling approach (LISREL) is used. The results show that the variable self-control is a multidimensional construct and self-control has a stronger influence under the condition of low crime opportunity.' (author's abstract)

Offenheit und Vergleichbarkeit in der qualitativen und quantitativen Forschung

"Offenheit und Vergleichbarkeit sind wichtige Aspekte der empirischen Sozialforschung, wobei Offenheit vor allem mit qualitativen und Vergleichbarkeit üblicherweise eher mit quantitativen Forschungen in Verbindung gebracht wird. Im Rahmen des hier skizzierten Beitrags wird zunächst herausgearbeitet, dass Offenheit und Vergleichbarkeit für beide Forschungsrichtungen wichtig sind, aber jeweils unterschiedlich konzeptualisiert und umgesetzt werden. Diese Unterschiede sind dann von besonderer Bedeutung, wenn qualitative und quantitative Verfahren miteinander kombiniert und Ergebnisse aufeinander bezogen werden sollen. Abschließend werden daher einige Schlussfolgerungen für die Integration qualitativer und quantitativer Forschung skizziert." (Autorenreferat

Ostdeutsche zwischen Protest und autoritären Reaktionen: das Beispiel Sachsen

Ausgangspunkt des Beitrages ist die Frage, was die Motive der "besorgten Bürger*innen", die sich in den neuen rechtspopulistischen Bewegungen sammeln, tatsächlich sind. Besonderes Augenmerk wird dabei auf die Situation in Sachsen gelegt - ein Bundesland, das immer wieder im Fokus rechtspopulistischer Aktivitäten steht. Bezogen auf die Selbstbeschreibung "Ich bin doch kein Nazi", werden drei Hypothesen hinsichtlich der Motivation der besorgten Bürger*innen geprüft. Zum einen die "Defizithypothese", die die Unzufriedenheit mit wirtschaftlichen und politischen Entwicklungen als Hauptursache der Mobilisierung benennt, zum anderen die "Ideologiehypothese", hier werden verfestigte autoritäre, rechtsextreme Weltbilder als Hauptmotiv lokalisiert. Im Kontext der dritten Hypothese wird versucht, den Einfluss ostdeutscher "Besonderheiten", der sich in den empirisch immer wieder aufgefundenen Ost/West-Unterschieden manifestiert, zu "dekonstruieren". Es wird vermutet, dass neben Protestmotiven, die sich auf wahrgenommene wirtschaftliche und politische Defizite beziehen, insbesondere autoritäre Reaktionen eine wichtige Rolle spielen. Die Hypothesen werden mit Daten des Sachsen-Monitors von 2017 überprüft.The article investigates the motivation of the so-called "worried citizens", who follow the new right populist movement in Germany. The article focuses the situation in Saxonia. Refering to the self-description of the "worried citizens" "I am not a Nazi" we investigate three hypotheses. The "deficit hypothesis", which concentrates on the economic and political inconfidence as main reason for the mobilization. The "ideology hypothesis" focuses on stable authoritarian, rightwing worldviews as central motivation. In the context of the third hypothesis the text tries to "de-contruct" the influence of East German deprivation experiences - it is assumed that protest against economic and political deficits and authoritarian worldviews are important predictors and trigger authoritarian reactions. We test these hypotheses using data from a survey in Saxonia 2017 (called Sachsen-Monitor). We find evidences for all three hypotheses. It becomes clear, that not only worries are relevant for the rightwing mobilization but that authoritarian world views have a decisive function

Long-term reproducibility of electrophysiologically guided therapy with sotalol in patients with ventricular tachyarrhythmias

AbstractOBJECTIVESGoal of this study was to assess the long-term reproducibility of electrophysiologic drug testing in patients with ventricular tachyarrhythmias (VT/VF).BACKGROUNDProgrammed ventricular stimulation (PVS) is still widely used to guide antiarrhythmic therapy in patients with sustained ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation (VT/VF). Sotalol is considered as one of the most effective drugs for VT/VF. Because there is no proof of long-term reproducibility of a successful drug test with sotalol, we investigated the long-term reproducibility of drug testing with sotalol.METHODSThirty patients with VT/VF (age: 57 ± 11 years, 20 patients with coronary heart disease, 7 patients with no structural heart disease, 3 with others) and reproducible induction of VT/VF (28 patients VT, two patients VF) in a baseline PVS, were suppressible with sotalol (mean dosage 395 ± 137 mg) in a subsequent PVS. After a mean follow-up of 13 ± 10 months a PVS was again performed in patients, who had no evidence of progressive cardiac disease, who did not experience any arrhythmia recurrences or who were drug compliant. Irrespective of the inducibility after long-term therapy with sotalol, all patients were kept on the initial sotalol regimen. All 30 patients had a stable cardiac condition, were free of VT/VF recurrences and were drug compliant.RESULTSDespite the clinical efficacy of sotalol, in 12 patients (40%) VT/VF could again be induced after 13 ± 10.2 months. Inducibility was independent of age, heart disease, ejection fraction and follow-up time. During a further follow-up of 22.1 ± 10.9 months, five patients experienced nonfatal VT recurrences independently of the prior inducibility.CONCLUSIONSThis study shows a lacking long-term reproducibility of an initial effective PVS with sotalol. Despite an uneventful clinical follow-up, late electrophysiologic testing showed a VT/VF inducibility in a high portion of patients. Hence, electrophysiologic testing performed late after the initial drug test may no longer be predictive of outcome

Think globally, measure locally: The MIREN standardized protocol for monitoring plant species distributions along elevation gradients

Climate change and other global change drivers threaten plant diversity in mountains worldwide. A widely documented response to such environmental modifications is for plant species to change their elevational ranges. Range shifts are often idiosyncratic and difficult to generalize, partly due to variation in sampling methods. There is thus a need for a standardized monitoring strategy that can be applied across mountain regions to assess distribution changes and community turnover of native and non-native plant species over space and time. Here, we present a conceptually intuitive and standardized protocol developed by the Mountain Invasion Research Network (MIREN) to systematically quantify global patterns of native and non-native species distributions along elevation gradients and shifts arising from interactive effects of climate change and human disturbance. Usually repeated every five years, surveys consist of 20 sample sites located at equal elevation increments along three replicate roads per sampling region. At each site, three plots extend from the side of a mountain road into surrounding natural vegetation. The protocol has been successfully used in 18 regions worldwide from 2007 to present. Analyses of one point in time already generated some salient results, and revealed region-specific elevational patterns of native plant species richness, but a globally consistent elevational decline in non-native species richness. Non-native plants were also more abundant directly adjacent to road edges, suggesting that disturbed roadsides serve as a vector for invasions into mountains. From the upcoming analyses of time series, even more exciting results can be expected, especially about range shifts. Implementing the protocol in more mountain regions globally would help to generate a more complete picture of how global change alters species distributions. This would inform conservation policy in mountain ecosystems, where some conservation policies remain poorly implemented

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world\u27s major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (−0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km² resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e., offset) between in-situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km² pixels (summarized from 8500 unique temperature sensors) across all the world’s major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in-situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications